Convergence of Romanian and Europe Union agriculture – evolution and prospective assessment

This paper presents forecasts related to the evolution of agricultural production in Romania, relative to the European Union average and to other countries (France, Germany, and Hungary) while taking into consideration the production potential of Romanian agriculture and opportunities to mobilize certain additional financial sources intended for the growth of intermediate consumption and implicitly of the value of agricultural production. This undertaking is designed to identify the degree to which over the next 20 years, Romania can come closer to agricultural performance, standard of living and food quality levels of developed European countries. Current disparities are significant, and there is no promise that they will be eliminated or at least not for all indicators, as structural problems related to Romanian agriculture at this time can be addressed only over the long term. We use historical data drawn from national and international statistical databases and forecast of their evolution using power regression functions. For French, German, Hungarian and European Union-27 average values, the historical growth rate has been preserved, and we develop three scenarios (pessimistic, realistic and optimistic) for Romania based on annual growth rates of 3%, 3.5% and 4%. On the basis of these work assumptions, we forecast agricultural production value, gross added value and intermediate consumption per hectare of agricultural area utilized. From these indicators we find that by maintaining the same historical development rate for all countries, Romania cannot reach the average European Union-27 level or levels for the other countries studied (France, Germany and Hungary) until 2038. A realistic scenario that takes into account an annual growth rate of 3.5% would allow for the elimination of disparities while taking into account a new evolutionary perspective on agricultural production with new production structures based on the following factors: amalgamation of land, expansion of irrigated surfaces, growth of animal production shares, development of agricultural research, expansion of financing opportunities.