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The study examines how the Chinese New Year holiday impacts trade flows in African economies, viewing it as a significant macroeconomic event.

When China pauses: the impact of the Chinese new year on African trade flows

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Randomized trial reveals trade contractions in African economies during Chinese New Year, indicating a need for better supply chain planning.

The study examines how the Chinese New Year holiday impacts trade flows in African economies, viewing it as a significant macroeconomic event.
Analyzed high-frequency panel data from 26 African economies between 2020 and 2025.
Utilized fixed-effects models, rolling-window regressions, and event-study analyses to assess trade impacts.
Explored effects by income levels, resource intensity, geography, and political stability.
Significant trade contractions observed during CNY months, especially in South, Central, and North Africa.
Low-income, coastal, non-resource-intensive, and politically stable economies faced the greatest disruptions.
Shocks peaked in 2022 during post-COVID recovery before moderating in subsequent years.

Odu et al. (2026) studied this question.

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Randomized trial reveals trade contractions in African economies during Chinese New Year, indicating a need for better supply chain planning.