Effectiveness of Import Substitution Programs in Agriculture in the Republic of Tatarstan: An Empirical Analysis

Agriculture is the foundational sector of the Russian Federation and defines the key foundations for sustainable development of national economic system. Meanwhile, in recent years, agro-industrial complex of Russia and its regions has faced increasing threats, manifested in the transformation of international supply chains in the context of sanctions restrictions. Therefore, assessing the current situation and development prospects of the sector within the framework of intensively implemented import substitution programs in the context of ongoing systemic transformations is a highly relevant area of modern research. This study identified main patterns that emerged in the agricultural sector of the Republic of Tatarstan during the escalation of sanctions standoff in 2022 in the context of import dependence of considered economic sector. According to the constructed model of the impact of the share of imports from unfriendly countries on the volume of goods shipped in the agricultural sector of the Republic of Tatarstan, a 1 percentage point increase in critical imports entails a decrease of 3,471.8 million rubles in this indicator. Based on the obtained results, as well as statistical data on current industry development trends, it was determined that by 2030, the volume of domestic agricultural production in the region will increase to 223.3 billion rubles as part of a progressive movement toward reducing imports from unfriendly countries. Elements of scientific novelty are expressed in the author’s approach to analyzing the effectiveness of import substitution programs in the regional agricultural sector based on the construction of a predictive model of industry development, taking into account an assessment of import dependence.