Fifteen year survival study of patients with obstructive coronary artery disease.

Survival rates were determined for a group of 598 patients in whom severe coronary disease was demonstrated by arteriography; initially they were treated medically and were followed-up for 15 years. Deaths due to noncoronary causes were uncommon (5% of total) in the first 5 year period but were frequent (36%) in the third period. Survival rates were 48%, 28%, 18%, and 9% for patients with single-, double-, triple-, and left main artery disease, respectively. Abnormalities documented by ventriculography were related to survival. In 386 patients who would have been candidates for bypass surgery, survival rates were 58%, 35%, 26%, and 11% for those with single-, double-, triple-, and left main artery disease, respectively. Cardiac survival curves for single-, double-, and triple-artery disease in candidates for surgery and curves constructed on the basis of 3% mortality per artery per year corresponded fairly closely. When an abnormal electrocardiogram (ECG) is considered as a single variable in multivariate analysis, 5 year survival rates of candidates for surgery were influenced by the following in order of importance: abnormal ECG, symptoms at least 5 years in duration, triple-artery disease, double-artery disease, and arteriosclerosis obliterans. A simple prognostic stratification was devised that used only ECGs and duration of symptoms for each subset based on the number of arteries affected.