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May 22, 2026Digital HealthOpen Access

Calibrated logistic regression outperforms TIMI score for predicting in-hospital mortality in Asian STEMI patients.

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Why the study?

Traditional STEMI risk scores developed in Western populations may have suboptimal performance in Asian patients, and predictive models often neglect model explainability and probability calibration.

Do explainable machine learning models improve in-hospital mortality prediction compared to the TIMI risk score in Asian STEMI patients?

Population

49,574 Asian STEMI patients in the Malaysian National Cardiovascular Disease registry

Comparison

Machine learning models vs TIMI risk score

Design

Retrospective cohort study

Key result

A calibrated logistic regression model outperformed the TIMI score for in-hospital mortality prediction in Asian STEMI patients (AUC 0.8884; 95% CI 0.8756-0.9011).

Authors

SKS KasimLFLim Bing FengPRPutri Nur Fatin Amir Rudin

Discussion

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Overview

Calibrated ML models outperform TIMI for Asian STEMI in-hospital mortality prediction; extends explainable, calibrated tools for risk stratification in underrepresented populations.

Key Points

  • This study aimed to develop and validate explainable, calibrated machine learning models to predict in-hospital mortality in Asian STEMI patients.
  • Retrospective cohort study using data from 49,574 Asian STEMI patients in Malaysia from 2006 to 2021.
  • Various machine learning algorithms including logistic regression and XGBoost were trained and compared.
  • Model performance was evaluated using AUC-ROC, accuracy, recall, specificity, Brier score, and NRI, with a focus on calibration and explainability using SHAP.
  • The calibrated logistic regression model achieved an AUC of 0.8884 (95% CI: 0.8756–0.9011) and Brier score of 0.0598.
  • Accuracy was recorded at 0.8538, with a recall of 0.7746 and specificity of 0.8617.
  • Probability calibration further improved model reliability, surpassing the TIMI score by a NRI of 0.5828.

Study Design

Type

Cohort (n=49,574)

Multicenter

Yes

Structured PICO

Do explainable machine learning models improve in-hospital mortality prediction compared to the TIMI risk score in Asian STEMI patients?

P
Population
49,574 Asian STEMI patients in the Malaysian National Cardiovascular Disease registry (2006–2021)
I
Intervention
Explainable, well-calibrated machine learning models (including calibrated logistic regression)
C
Comparator
TIMI risk score
O
Outcome
In-hospital mortality predictionhard clinical

Main Result

Effect estimate: AUC 0.8884 (95% CI 0.8756-0.9011)

A calibrated logistic regression model with SHAP-based explainability significantly outperformed the traditional TIMI score for predicting in-hospital mortality in Asian STEMI patients.

Cite This Study

Kasim et al. (2026) conducted a cohort in ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) (n=49,574). Calibrated logistic regression model vs. TIMI risk score was evaluated on In-hospital mortality prediction (AUC 0.8884, 95% CI 0.8756-0.9011). A calibrated logistic regression model outperformed the TIMI score for in-hospital mortality prediction in Asian STEMI patients (AUC 0.8884; 95% CI 0.8756-0.9011).

synapsesocial.com/papers/6a0ff327d674f7c03778bb2ahttps://doi.org/10.1177/20552076261426306
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