The carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) as a challenge for Russia’s export-oriented industries: a case study of the metallurgical complex in the URAL federal district

The article assesses the implications of the European Union's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) for export-oriented metallurgical enterprises located in the Ural Federal District (UFD) of Russia. The primary focus is placed on the analysis of direct financial burdens and fiscal consequences for the national and regional budgets arising from the implementation of cross-border carbon regulation. The empirical basis includes annual and non-financial reports of key metallurgical companies, official statistics from federal authorities, and legal provisions of Regulation (EU) 2023/956. An economic and mathematical model is developed to quantify the CBAM-related payments for major producers—Public Joint Stock Company EVRAZ, Public Joint Stock Company Magnitogorsk Iron and Steel Works, and Public Joint Stock Company Pipe Metallurgical Company—for the period from 2026 to 2034. The results show that cumulative carbon payments may reach up to €372.77 million, with the largest burden falling on enterprises engaged in primary steelmaking due to high levels of carbon intensity. A scenario-based estimate of tax shortfalls reveals a projected decline in budget revenues of RUB 2.97 billion by 2034, with over 70% of the loss impacting regional budgets of the Ural Federal District. The study highlights the urgent need to develop a national carbon pricing and reporting system to mitigate the risks associated with CBAM. Policy recommendations include introducing sector-specific carbon taxes, launching pilot emissions trading schemes, and creating industrial clusters focused on low-carbon technologies. The analysis concludes that, despite short-term economic pressure, CBAM may act as a long-term driver for industrial modernization and the transition toward sustainable production practices.