Economic analysis reveals that EU carbon border tax risks for Russian exporters depend primarily on sectoral carbon intensity rather than total trade volume, highlighting major adaptation challenges.
The article focuses on the impact of the European Union's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) on the Russian economy. Special attention is given to assessing the role of the European Union in Russia's foreign trade structure, as well as the sectoral concentration of exports subject to CBAM. Based on an analysis of the country and commodity structure of foreign trade flows, the article identifies risks for Russian corporations associated with increased costs and the need to adapt to external climate regulation requirements. It is shown that the degree of impact of CBAM is determined not so much by the scale of trade flows, but by their sectoral structure and carbon intensity of products.
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Evgeniy Mel'nikov (2026) studied this question.
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