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May 22, 2026Open Access

Scenario Simulation of Built-up Land Expansion in the Central Region of China Based on the PLUS Model and Its Landscape Pattern Analysis

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Authors

XWX WangWuhan University of TechnologySWSenrong WangWuhan University of TechnologyXZXinjie ZhouWuhan University of Technology

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Implication

Randomized trial simulates land evolution in Central China, suggesting better urban development strategies.

Key Points

  • This study aims to examine built-up land expansion and landscape pattern changes in Central China's provinces through scenario simulation.
  • Utilized land-use data from 2010 and 2020 along with the PLUS model to predict changes from 2030 to 2050.
  • Analyzed different development scenarios affecting land expansion and landscape metrics.
  • Classified provinces based on their responses to scenario-driven expansion.
  • Under the Natural Development Scenario, built-up land showed rapid expansion with significant pressure on cropland (PD and LPI metrics indicated high path dependence).
  • The Balanced Scenario reduced expansion scale and promoted compact development (AI and LSI metrics improved).
  • Provinces exhibited varying responses; the classification included high, moderate, and low expansion stability types.

Cite This Study

Wang et al. (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/6a0ff412d674f7c03778d29chttps://doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/202671101024/pdf
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Also Consider

Synapse has enriched 5 closely related papers on similar clinical questions. Consider them for comparative context:

  1. 1Efficiency-Driven Land Use Spatial Dynamics and Multi-Scenario Simulation: A Case Study of the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei Region2026
  2. 2Coupled Dynamics of Land-Use Change and Landscape-Pattern Responses Under Multiple Scenarios in the Yangtze and Yellow River Basins2026
  3. 3Prediction of land use for the next 30 years using the PLUS model's multi-scenario simulation in Guizhou Province, China2024 · 69 citations
  4. 4A Multi-Algorithm Framework for Multi-Scenario Simulation of Urban Built-Up Expansion in ASEAN Under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways2026
  5. 5Multi-Scenario Simulation and Prediction of Land Use Conflicts Based on the PLUS Model and Optimal Landscape Scale: Evidence from the Urumqi–Changji–Shihezi Urban Agglomeration, Northwest China2026