The Short-Term Labour Market Impact of Venezuelan Immigration in Peru

We estimate the labour market impact of Venezuelan immigration in Peru using a skill-cell approach that defines labour markets by occupations. To address endogeneity, we implement an instrumental-variable strategy based on migrants’ pre-migration occupations. Our findings indicate that the burden of migration falls primarily on informal native workers, who experience wage declines, while employment levels remain stable. Specifically, a 10 per cent increase in immigration reduces hourly wages of informal natives by 0.27 per cent . Evidence on hours worked is less robust, but point estimates suggest a small increase (0.19%) among informal workers. These results highlight the labour market effects of migration in contexts characterised by high informality and migrants with higher relative education, a common but understudied phenomenon in developing countries.