Remaking the Nagorno-Karabakh Peace Process

The unresolved conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh continues to be the gravest long-term problem for the South Caucasus region and the whole area between the Black and Caspian Seas. Should the conflict re-ignite, it would spread catastrophe over a wide region, impacting not just Armenia and Azerbaijan, but Georgia, Russia, Turkey, Iran and energy routes across the Caspian Sea. Yet it remains a low priority internationally because of a consensus that there is no immediate danger and no prospect that greatly enhanced international pressure will force the local leaders to become more amenable to peace. Three aspects of the peace process receive far too little attention: the ceasefire and plan for an international security force; the Track Two process; and the role of international organisations and other interested actors. Now is a good time to engage in a re-think. To stick with the current Minsk Process in all its details runs the risk of discrediting all the good work that has been done so far. The greatest danger is that the international community only wakes up to the importance of the Karabakh conflict when it is already sliding back into full-scale war.