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African countries have comparative advantages in the production and export of primary commodities; however, they face many sustainability challenges in the agricultural sector. Since the democratization of many African countries, notably Ghana, there have been a number of interventions costing billions of dollars to overcome the challenges facing the agricultural industry but with little success. The agricultural industry is a complex system. Casual loop and Bayesian belief network modelling were used to develop systems models to determine the components and interactions between the policy and the social, environmental and economic dimensions of the industry. Insights into potential system behaviors and leverage points for systemic interventions required for sustainable agricultural development were identified. The systems models will help governments to anticipate the long-term consequences of their decisions and actions, as well as help to avoid any unintended consequences of policies and strategies such as ‘silo mentality’ and ‘organizational myopia’. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Banson et al. (Thu,) studied this question.