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A physically-based methodology for synthesizing the hourly residential heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning (HVAC) load was developed and tested against the data from a utility. The method, which is coded in FORTRAN IV, is currently operational. It involves a simulation model and a newly-developed load-diversification? model. The simulation model captures the thermodynamic principles of building structures. The load-diversification model estimates the diversified load from a limited number of load shapes of individual households. Because of the physically-based nature of the method, it could be used to analyze the resulting changes in load shapes due to load- management technologies (e.g. cycling of air-conditioners, water storage heating and cooling system, ceramic brick storage system). The load-synthesis method also provides an efficient procedure to analyze the effect on the system load due to different penetrations of load-management technologies. Resulting load shapes could be led into a generation (G) expansion model and a transmission and distribution (T&D) model to assess the impacts on the utility's planning. This methodology, which has been validated against the metered data of a midwestern utility, is a cost- effective tool with predictive capability for evaluating load-management programs.
Chan et al. (Wed,) studied this question.