The Predictive Value of Waist-To-Height Ratio for Ischemic Stroke in a Population-Based Prospective Cohort Study among Mongolian Men in China

OBJECTIVE: To explore the associations between waist-to-height ratio (WHtR), body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference (WC) and risk of ischemic stroke among Mongolian men in China. METHODS: A population-based prospective cohort study was conducted from June 2003 to July 2012 in Inner Mongolia, an autonomous region in north China. A total of 1034 men aged 20 years and older free of cardiovascular disease were included in the cohort and followed up for an average of 9.2 years. The subjects were divided into four groups by WHtR levels (WHtR<0.40, 0.40≤WHtR≤0.50, 0.50<WHtR≤0.60, WHtR>0.60). The cumulative survival rates of ischemic stroke among the four groups were estimated with the Kaplan-Meier curves and compared by log-rank test. Cox proportional hazards models and Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves were employed to evaluate the associations between obesity indices and ischemic stroke. RESULTS: A total of 47 ischemic stroke patients were observed during the follow-up period. The cumulative incidence and incidence density of ischemic stroke were 4.55% and 507.61/100 000 person-years, respectively. After the major risk factors were adjusted, individuals with WHtR>0.60 had a 3.56-fold increased risk of ischemic stroke compared with those with 0.40≤WHtR≤0.50. Hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) of ischemic stroke for a 1-SD increase in WHtR was 1.34(95% CI: 1.00-1.81). After adding BMI or WC to models, higher WHtR remained significantly associated with increased risk of ischemic stroke. The Kaplan-Meier survival curves showed that the cumulative survival rate in the group with WHtR>0.60 was significantly lower than in the group with 0.40≤WHtR≤0.50 (log-rank test, P = 0.025). The areas under the curve for each index were as follows: 0.586 for WHtR, 0.543 for WC; 0.566 for BMI. CONCLUSIONS: Higher WHtR is associated with risk of ischemic stroke in Mongolian males. WHtR may be useful in predicting ischemic stroke incidence in males.