Significance Questing

Editorials1 September 1986Significance QuestingKENNETH J. ROTHMAN, Dr.P.H.KENNETH J. ROTHMAN, Dr.P.H.Search for more papers by this authorAuthor, Article, and Disclosure Informationhttps://doi.org/10.7326/0003-4819-105-3-445 SectionsAboutPDF ToolsAdd to favoritesDownload CitationsTrack CitationsPermissions ShareFacebookTwitterLinkedInRedditEmail ExcerptThe method of science, as described by the philosopher Karl Popper (1), is to formulate bold conjectures, to determine by deduction the consequences of these conjectures, and then to collect data in a directed way to test each conjecture by attempting to falsify it ( 1, 2). A crucial test is one in which two different theories predict different outcomes for an observation; then, the observation will refute at least one of the theories.A cornerstone of scientific testing is the reliance on measurement. Whereas a theory is considered qualitatively to be either true or false, its validity is assessed...References1. POPPER K. The Logic of Scientific Discovery. 2nd ed. New York: Harper 1968. Google Scholar2. PLATT H. Strong inference. Science. 1964;146:347-53. CrossrefMedlineGoogle Scholar3. POINCARé H. Chance. In: Foundations of Science. (HALSTEAD GB, trans.) Lancaster, Pennsylvania: Science Press. Google Scholar NEWMAN J (Reprinted in , ed. The World of Mathematics, vol. 2. New York: Simon and Schuster; 1956:1380-94.) Google Scholar4. POLYA G. Patterns of Plausible Inference. Princeton, New Jersey: Princeton University Press; 1954. (Mathematics and Plausible Reasoning, vol. 2.) Google Scholar5. POWELL-TUCKMACRAEHEALYLENNARD-JONESPARKINS JKMJR. A defence of the small clinical trial: evaluation of three gastroenterological studies. Br Med J Clin Res. 1986;292:599-602. CrossrefMedlineGoogle Scholar6. FREIMANCHALMERSSMITHKUEBLER JTHR. The importance of beta, the type II error and sample size in the design and interpretation of the randomized control trial: survey of 71 "negative" trials. N Engl J Med. 1978;299:690-4. CrossrefMedlineGoogle Scholar7. Time. 1986; Feb 24:69. Google Scholar8. INGELFINGER F. The confusions and consolations of uncertainty. N Engl J Med. 1975;292:1402-3. CrossrefMedlineGoogle Scholar9. SIMON R. Confidence intervals for reporting results of clinical trials. Ann Intern Med. 1986;105:429-35. LinkGoogle Scholar This content is PDF only. To continue reading please click on the PDF icon. Author, Article, and Disclosure InformationAuthors: KENNETH J. 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