Optimization of Innovative Product Distribution in Agro-Industrial Business

One of the key success factors in modern agro-industrial business is the optimization of distribution processes, which helps reduce costs, increase the speed and quality of deliveries, and ensure maximum alignment between supply and demand. One such method is the use of econometric models to identify patterns and optimize costs at various stages of distribution, enabling the development of well-founded resource management strategies and improving the financial performance of companies. The article examines the application of econometric models for optimizing distribution processes using the example of PrJSC "Myronivsky Hliboproduct," one of the leaders in Ukraine's agro-industrial sector, which actively implements innovative approaches in production and distribution. The objective of the study is to model the interrelationships and determine the impact of costs at various stages of distribution to provide recommendations for their optimization and efficiency improvement. To optimize costs and increase sales of the company's innovative products, a justified selection of the model was made based on the following criteria: ease of implementation, data volume, flexibility, accuracy of results, and implementation cost. It was found that multiple regression analysis is the optimal choice, as it offers several advantages that make it the most relevant for the analyzed agro-industrial company. Key factors were selected for model development: transportation costs, marketing expenses, demand seasonality, and export share. The developed model confirms a high level of correlation between these factors and sales volume. The use of the ordinary least squares (OLS) method and the construction of a heatmap enabled a detailed analysis and forecasts regarding the impact of these factors on sales volume. The main results indicate that the most significant factor influencing the company’s sales volume is the export share, while marketing and transportation costs have a substantial but lesser impact. This suggests a great potential for growth through export expansion and improvements in logistics and marketing processes. The analysis also identified key challenges hindering the distribution of innovative products and provided recommendations for their resolution. The obtained results have practical value for more effective cost planning in the distribution system and resource optimization, which will contribute to maintaining the company's competitive advantages and ensuring its sustainable market growth.