Preschool Education Demand in China by 2035: A Prediction Analysis

Research Findings: The implementation of the universal two-child policy in China will first affect changes in the country’s population, before influencing the scale of development of preschool education to meet the corresponding demand for educational resources. Using data from China’s sixth census as the base-period data, this study applied the Leslie matrix to predict changes in the population aged 3–6 years, the number of children enrolled in preschool programs, and educational resource demand, including demand for preschool programs, educational personnel, and government expenditure, from 2021 to 2035 in China. The results indicated that, although the population aged 3–6 years and the number of children enrolled in preschool programs were predicted to show a downward trend from 2021 to 2035, the demand for preschool education resources was predicted to be higher than the available resources in 2019. To meet the predicted demand, more preschool resources will need be introduced in rural areas than in urban areas over the next 15 years. Practice or Policy: The findings have potential implications for policy makers formulating preschool education development and resource allocation from 2021 to 2035.