Educational inequality in fragile states: tackling barriers to SDG 4 in Somalia

This study examines the determinants of school participation among 18,212 children aged 6–18 years using nationally representative microdata from the 2022 Somalia Integrated Household Budget Survey (SIHBS). Guided by human capital and capability perspectives and a resilience lens on fragility, we estimate linear probability models and logit models for the full sample and for subgroups defined by gender, age cohort, settlement type, displacement status, food security, remittance receipt, and federal member state of residence. The results show that girls, nomadic children, internally displaced children, and those in food-insecure households face pronounced attendance penalties, with the largest gaps in Hirshabelle, Jubaland, and Southwest states. Remittances are positively associated with participation and partially buffer the negative effects of food insecurity and displacement but do not fully offset structural exclusion. These findings highlight the intersecting nature of educational disadvantage in fragile settings and demonstrate how household resilience factors interact with institutional constraints. The paper concludes with concrete policy priorities for SDG 4 in Somalia, including gender-responsive interventions, targeted support for displaced and nomadic children, and integration of education, social protection, and food assistance in the most deprived regions.