Despite global commitments to Sustainable Development Goal 4 (SDG 4), children with functional difficulties in fragile and post-conflict contexts like Somalia remain disproportionately excluded. While universal primary education (UPE) initiatives have expanded access for the general population, empirical evidence regarding the specific barriers facing children with disabilities remains scarce. This study aims to quantify the “disability penalty” within the Somali educational landscape and test the “double disadvantage” hypothesis to determine if the intersection of gender and disability creates a compounded risk of school exclusion. Utilizing secondary data from the Somali Integrated Household Budget Survey (SIHBS) 2022, a raw sample of 19,729 children aged 5–17 was analyzed. Sampling weights were calibrated to represent a demographically logical national cohort of approximately 7.1 million children. The study employed survey-weighted multivariable logistic regression models to calculate Odds Ratios (OR), incorporating an interaction term (Sex × Disability) to evaluate intersectional effects while controlling for age, residence type, and socio-economic proxies. Findings reveal a substantial and systemic disability penalty; children with functional difficulties have 62% lower odds of attending school than their non-disabled peers (OR = 0.38, p<.01). Regarding the intersectional analysis, while the interaction term between sex and disability was not statistically significant (p = .6), absolute probability models reveal that the significant disability penalty acts as a primary “equalizer” of exclusion. Because the independent main effect for being female is significantly negative (OR = 0.83, p<.001), a baseline gender gap exists; however, functional difficulty effectively erases this male advantage, pulling both disabled boys and girls to the same lowest systemic probability tier. Furthermore, geographic and economic factors act as powerful gatekeepers: nomadic children have the lowest odds of attendance (OR = 0.27, p<.001), and the lack of household electricity reduces participation likelihood by 55% (OR = 0.45, p<.001). To achieve SDG Target 4, Somali educational policy must shift from gender-neutral inclusion to targeted intersectional strategies. The results underscore that general poverty reduction is insufficient to close the disability gap. Interventions must specifically address the primary structural barrier of functional difficulty that universally excludes both disabled boys and girls, particularly within nomadic and low-income households, to ensure true social sustainability and human capital development.
Aden et al. (Fri,) studied this question.