Predicting the Potential Global Distribution of the Invasive Species Aethina tumida Murray, 1867, and Its Natural Enemy Steinernema carpocapsae (Weiser, 1955)

Invasive alien species threaten the security of agricultural and natural ecosystems. Aethina tumida Murray, 1867, threatens bee colony health and apicultural sustainability. However, the entomopathogenic nematode, Steinernema carpocapsae (Weiser, 1955), may be a potential biocontrol agent. Models (MaxEnt and CLIMEX) were used to predict the potential global distribution of both species under climate change. The results indicated that under the current climatic conditions, both models found suitable habitats for A. tumida primarily in South America, southern Africa, and South Asia, whereas S. carpocapsae exhibited a broader global spread. Notably, CLIMEX predicted a more extensive distribution than MaxEnt for both species. The MaxEnt results indicated that North America, Europe, and central Australia are suitable habitats for A. tumida expansion in SSP245 (2050s) and SSP585 (2070s), whereas S. carpocapsae was predicted to expand into Asia, North America, and Africa in SSP126 (2090s), SSP245 (2030s), and SSP585 (2070s). The CLIMEX results indicated that under the A1B and A2 climate scenarios, highly suitable habitats for both species decreased significantly, whereas they are predicted to moderately and marginally increase markedly in the 2100s. The potential distribution of A. tumida will depend on suitable climatic conditions and the presence of host bees. These results provide a scientific basis and support in preventing or controlling A. tumida.