What is the clinical evidence from this study?

Study design: Cross-Sectional. Population: Cardiovascular disease risk (n=61629). Intervention: Time period (1998 to 2017). Primary outcome: mean predicted 10-year CVD risk (p=<.001).

What does this research mean for the field?

The absolute predicted 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease has declined significantly over the past two decades for both men and women. Novelty: ClaimNovelty.INCREMENTAL. Consensus alignment: ConsensusAlignment.NEUTRAL.

What question did this study set out to answer?

The study aims to create a harmonized dataset to estimate trends in mean predicted 10-year cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk.

May 24, 2026Open Access

Estimating trends in cardiovascular disease risk for the EXPOSE (Explaining Population Trends in Cardiovascular Risk: a comparative analysis of health transitions in South Africa and England) study: repeated cross-sectional study

Q: What are the key findings of this study?

The absolute predicted 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease declined significantly between 1998 and 2017 in both sexes (P<.001 for linear trend), dropping from 10.1% to 8.4% in men.

Q: What does this research mean for the field?

The absolute predicted 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease has declined significantly over the past two decades for both men and women. Novelty: ClaimNovelty.INCREMENTAL. Consensus alignment: ConsensusAlignment.NEUTRAL.

Q: What question did this study set out to answer?

The study aims to create a harmonized dataset to estimate trends in mean predicted 10-year cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk.

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Key result

Predicted 10-year CVD risk falls across both sexes from 1998 to 2017, dropping ~17% in men.

P<.001
n=61,629

Why the study?

Creating harmonized datasets from repeated surveys is challenging, and data were needed to estimate trends in predicted 10-year CVD risk and potential drivers using Health Surveys for England.

Population

33,628 (laboratory-based) and 61,629 (non-laboratory-based) participants aged 40 to 74 years

Comparison

Trends across survey years between 1998 and 2017

Design

Repeated cross-sectional study

Authors

HCHuman Sciences Research Council

Discussion

Member takes

Implication

Supports ongoing CVD risk surveillance; leaves open drivers of secular trends in observational data.

Key Points

The study aims to create a harmonized dataset to estimate trends in mean predicted 10-year cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk.
Analyzed microlevel data from national health surveys in South Africa and England between 1998 and 2017.
Utilized laboratory- and non-laboratory-based WHO and Globorisk algorithms to calculate predicted 10-year CVD risk.
Accounted for complex survey design to compute sex-specific estimates of CVD risk components.
The absolute predicted 10-year CVD risk declined significantly in both men and women from 1998 to 2017 (P<.001).
Men's mean laboratory-based CVD risk decreased from 10.1% (SE 0.2%) in 1998 to 8.4% (SE 0.2%) in 2017; women decreased from 5.6% (SE 0.1%) to 4.5% (SE 0.1%).
Non-laboratory-based CVD risk in men decreased from 9.6% (SE 0.1%) to 8.9% (SE 0.2%) and in women from 5.8% (SE 0.1%) to 4.8% (SE 0.1%).

Study Design

Type

Cross-Sectional (n=61,629)

Multicenter

Yes

Structured PICO

Population

33,628 (laboratory-based) and 61,629 (non-laboratory-based) participants aged 40 to 74 years from nationally representative population health surveys in South Africa and England between 1998 and 2017.

Outcome

Trends in mean predicted 10-year CVD risk (using laboratory- and non-laboratory-based WHO and Globorisk algorithms)surrogate

Main Result

p-value: p=<.001

Harmonized data from repeated cross-sectional health surveys show a significant decline in predicted 10-year CVD risk over the last two decades in both sexes.

Limitations

Challenges in harmonizing data due to changes in survey content, question wording, boost samples, weighting, measuring equipment, and data protection guidelines

Cite This Study

Human Sciences Research Council (2026) conducted a cross-sectional in Cardiovascular disease risk (n=61,629). Time period (1998 to 2017) was evaluated on mean predicted 10-year CVD risk (p=<.001). The absolute predicted 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease declined significantly between 1998 and 2017 in both sexes (P<.001 for linear trend), dropping from 10.1% to 8.4% in men.

synapsesocial.com/papers/6a1295e248a0ea16656722fc https://doi.org/10.14749/32359110

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Estimating trends in cardiovascular disease risk for the EXPOSE (Explaining Population Trends in Cardiovascular Risk: a comparative analysis of health transitions in South Africa and England) study: repeated cross-sectional study

Discussion

Member takes

Implication

Key Points

Study Design

Structured PICO

Main Result

Limitations

Cite This Study

Estimating trends in cardiovascular disease risk for the EXPOSE (Explaining Population Trends in Cardiovascular Risk: a comparative analysis of health transitions in South Africa and England) study: repeated cross-sectional study

Discussion

Member takes

Implication

Key Points

Study Design

Structured PICO

Main Result

Limitations

Cite This Study

Also Consider

Also Consider