The Energy Poverty Effect of Low-Carbon City Pilot Policies under the “Dual Carbon” Goals: Empirical Evidence based on Double Machine Learning

April 1, 2026Journal of Energy and Climate ChangeOpen Access

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Key Points

This research aims to evaluate the causal effect of low-carbon city pilot policies on energy poverty in China from 2006 to 2022.
Analyzed panel data from 277 Chinese cities between 2006 and 2022.
Utilized double machine learning methods for causal effect identification.
Conducted heterogeneity analysis based on city characteristics.
Low-carbon city policies significantly exacerbated urban energy poverty, with an initial increase followed by a decrease over time.
Resource-rich and manufacturing-centric cities experienced greater short-term negative impacts.
Cities with high green innovation capabilities entered a 'dividend period' earlier, mitigating adverse effects.

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Assesses the effects of low-carbon city policies on energy poverty, indicating dynamic outcomes across urban contexts.

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Zhou et al. (2026) studied this question.

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