Economic specialization and demographic development of settlements in the Northern region

The article is devoted to the analysis of impact of economic specialization of settlements in the northern mining region on their demographic dynamics. The object of the study is 58 urban and 725 rural settlements of the Komi Republic in 1897-2020. Use of highly detailed data made it possible to identify spatial and sectoral patterns in demographic development of the settlements. The authors have proposed periodization of economic and demographic development of the Komi Republic in the XX-XXI centuries based on production structure and population movement. The study has identified specifics of demographic dynamics in settlements specialized in coal mining, natural gas and oil production, timber, transportation and multifunctional settlements in northern Russia. The authors show that relationship between the volume of production and demographic dynamics varies depending on the settlement specialization. The relationship between the population size and phase of the natural resource extraction cycle is most pronounced in coal mining settlements. As to rural settlements, in addition to economic specialization, the dominant ethnic group was taken into account. The study shows that the smallest outflow of population is registered in agricultural settlements, as well as settlements with Komi being the dominant ethnic group or settlements with mixed ethnic composition. Impact of spatial remoteness of northern settlements on population size in different time periods has been determined. The results obtained make it possible to predict future changes in population distribution in the northern and Arctic regions.