Limits and longevity: A model for scenarios that influence the future

Normative scenario planning seeks to influence and improve outcomes in the external environment. By any measure, success in this is only partially and variably achieved, and there remains great need to understand how scenarios that embrace a change agenda and seek to improve external outcomes can achieve their purpose. The Mont Fleur scenarios, created at the height of the South African transition, are considered a landmark in such success, where the future external environment was influenced: in its case, particularly steering the political transition towards market-led rather than socialist economics. This study revisits the Mont Fleur process to extract and distil understanding of how it set itself up to succeed in its future-influencing purpose, and from this draws lessons for scenario projects that today seek to influence the future external environment. A six-step template for success in this regard is uncovered.