High Blood Glucose Concentration Is a Risk Factor for Mortality in Middle-Aged Nondiabetic Men: 20-year follow-up in the Whitehall Study, the Paris Prospective Study, and the Helsinki Policemen Study

OBJECTIVE: To assess the association between high but nondiabetic blood glucose levels and the risk of death from all causes, coronary heart disease (CHD), cardiovascular disease, and neoplasms. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: We studied the 20-year mortality of non-diabetic, working men, age 44-55 years, in three European cohorts known as the Whitehall Study (n = 10,025), the Paris Prospective Study (n = 6,629), and the Helsinki Policeman Study (n = 631). These men were identified by their 2-h glucose levels following an oral glucose tolerance test and by the absence of a prior diagnosis of diabetes. As the protocol for the oral glucose tolerance test and methods for measuring glucose differed between studies, mortality was analyzed according to the percentiles of the 2-h and fasting glucose distributions, using the Cox's proportional hazards model. RESULTS: Men in the upper 20% of the 2-h glucose distributions and those in the upper 2.5% for fasting glucose had a significantly higher risk of all-cause mortality in comparison with men in the lower 80% of these distributions, with age-adjusted hazard ratios of 1.6 (95% CI 1.4-1.9) and 2.0 (1.6-2.6) for the upper 2.5%. For death from cardiovascular and CHD, men in the upper 2.5% of the 2-h and fasting glucose distributions were at higher risk, with age-adjusted hazard ratios for CHD of 1.8 (1.4-2.4) and 2.7 (1.7-4.4), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: If early intervention aimed at lowering blood glucose concentrations can be shown to reduce mortality, it may be justified to lower the levels of both 2-h and fasting glucose, which define diabetes.