Projections of the Number of Persons Diagnosed with AIDS and the Number of Immunosuppressed HIV-Infected Persons -- United States, 1992-1994

This report presents projections of the number of persons who will initially be diagnosed with a condition included in the 1987 surveillance definition for acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) in the United States during the period 1992-1994. The report also presents estimates and projections of the prevalence of persons infected with the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) who have CD4+ T-lymphocyte (T-cell) counts < 200/microL and who have not been diagnosed with a condition listed in the 1987 AIDS surveillance definition. These estimates and projections are used to predict the effect of expanding the AIDS surveillance definition to include all HIV-infected persons with a CD4+ T-cell count < 200/microL. Approximately 58,000 persons were diagnosed with AIDS in the United States during 1991. During the period 1992-1994, the number of persons newly diagnosed with AIDS is expected to increase by at most a few percent annually, with approximately 60,000-70,000 persons diagnosed per year. Although AIDS diagnoses among homosexual and bisexual men and among injecting drug users are projected to reach a plateau during this period, the number of AIDS diagnoses among persons whose HIV infection is attributed to heterosexual transmission of HIV is likely to continue to increase through 1994. The number of living persons who have been diagnosed with AIDS is expected to increase from approximately 90,000 in January 1992 to approximately 120,000 in January 1995. There is, however, considerable uncertainty in these projections. For example, the plausible range for the number of persons initially diagnosed with AIDS in 1994 is 43,000-93,000. CDC estimates that, as of January 1992, 115,000-170,000 U.S. residents had severe immunosuppression (a CD4+ T-cell count < 200 cells/microL without a diagnosis of AIDS in an HIV-infected person). Only about 50,000 of these persons were receiving medical care for HIV-related conditions and were known to have a CD4+ T-cell count < 200 cells/microL. The number of persons with severe immunosuppression is expected to increase to 130,000-205,000 by January 1995, with the actual number more likely to be in the lower half of this range than the upper half. The expanded AIDS surveillance definition, which includes severe immunosuppression, is predicted to result in an increase of approximately 75% in the number of persons reported during 1993, but an increase of < 20% in 1994 compared with the number of persons who would have been reported had the definition not been changed.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 400 WORDS)