Correlates of Major Complications or Death in Patients Admitted to the Hospital With Congestive Heart Failure

BACKGROUND: When triaging a patient who has heart failure, the physician must estimate the patient's shortterm risk of a major complication or death. METHODS: Prospective cohort study of 435 patients admitted nonelectively to an urban university hospital between February 2, 1993, and February 2, 1994, with a complaint of shortness of breath or fatigue and evidence of congestive heart failure on admission chest radiograph. RESULTS: Major adverse events occurred in 18% of patients who had ejection fractions less than 0.50, 16% of those with ejection fractions of 0.50 or more, and 19% of those with previous heart failure, ejection fractions of 0.50 or more, and no significant valvular disease. In multivariate analyses of all patients, independent correlates (P < or = .01) of major complications or death during hospitalization were initial systolic blood pressure of 90 mm Hg or less (adjusted odds ratio OR, 5.5; 95% confidence interval CI, 1.7-17.1), respiratory rate more than 30 breaths per minute on admission to the hospital (OR, 4.6; 95% CI, 2.4-8.8), serum sodium level of 135 mmol/L or less (OR, 2.2; 95% CI, 1.3-4.0), and ST-T wave changes on initial electrocardiogram neither known to be old nor attributable to digoxin (OR, 5.1; 95% CI, 2.9-8.9). However, even patients with none of these 4 risk factors had a 6% rate of a major complication or death. CONCLUSIONS: No truly low-risk group existed. Patients without hypotension, tachypnea, hyponatremia, or electrocardiographic changes of ischemia represent the best candidates for triage to less intensely monitored settings, but clinical judgment is essential.