World Conference on the Changing Atmosphere: Implications for Global Security

The World Conference on the Changing Atmosphere which opened in Toronto was Canada's response to a serious interest in the problems of the atmosphere. This interest was reflected in the broad theme of the conference, which encompassed not only climate change but also the risk to the ozone layer, long-range transport of atmospheric pollutants, and acid deposition. The summer's climatic events did not provoke a particular emphasis on the greenhouse-gas issue, and this imbalance was acutely registered in the official Conference Statement, which give atmospheric problems other than climate change relatively short shrift. The World Conference on the Changing Atmosphere produced a 39-point document that consists of the opening ministerial statements and the recommendations of 13 working groups. The working groups were convened to address the principal issues, recommend avenues for the research community to explore, and suggest appropriate governmental responses to the problems. One of the more startling recommendations calls for reducing carbon dioxide emissions by approximately 20 percent of 1988 levels by the year 2005, regardless of whether this reduction is effective or sufficient. Indeed, model analyses of atmospheric response to future greenhouse-gas burdens indicate that a 20-percent CO/sub 2/ reduction, albeit a step in the right direction,more » would be woefully inadequate to stabilize the atmosphere. The choice represents a pragmatic estimation of what can be achieved rather than a reliable scientific evaluation of what will be sufficient to prevent unacceptable climate change.« less