Key result
Higher resting heart rate linked to ~15% greater HF risk per 10 bpm in women.
Why the study?
The study was conducted to investigate sex-specific associations between longitudinal resting heart rate and new-onset heart failure using resting heart rate change and resting heart rate trajectories.
Does longitudinal change and trajectory of resting heart rate predict new-onset heart failure in adult men and women?
Cohort (n=47,712)
Does longitudinal change and trajectory of resting heart rate predict new-onset heart failure in adult men and women?
Effect estimate: HR 1.15 (95% CI 1.03-1.28)
Longitudinal increases in resting heart rate and persistently high resting heart rate trajectories are associated with an increased risk of new-onset heart failure in both men and women.
Higher resting heart rate may flag elevated heart failure risk; extends observational data but leaves open causal and interventional implications.
Aims To investigate sex-specific associations between longitudinal resting heart rate (RHR) and new-onset heart failure (HF) using RHR change and RHR trajectories. Methods Participants from the Trøndelag Health Study attending two or three surveys between 1995 and 2019 were included. We investigated the association between new-onset HF and RHR using RHR categories based on the standard deviation of baseline RHR (12 bpm), continuous RHR modeled using restricted cubic splines ( n = 47,712; mean 12-year follow-up), and latent class trajectory models ( n = 47,162; mean 7-year follow-up). Cox regression was used to estimate adjusted hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI). Results During follow-up, 2,880 of the 47,712 participants developed HF. The HF incidence rate was lower in women than men (4.27 vs. 5.68 per 1,000 person-years; ratio (95% CI) 0.67 (0.57–0.77). Baseline RHR was 74 bpm in women and 70 bpm in men, and 74% maintained their RHR (±12 bpm) from baseline to the second attendance (mean change −2 ± 12 bpm). Each 10 bpm higher RHR was associated with higher HF risk for both women and men with HRs (95% CI) 1.15 (1.03–1.28) and 1.09 (1.00–1.20), respectively. Participants with a high RHR trajectory had higher HF risk than the low RHR trajectory with HRs (95% CI) 1.43 (1.14–1.79) for women and 1.41 (1.16–1.72) for men. Conclusion All-cause HF was similarly associated with increased RHR and a high RHR trajectory for women and men. Estimating HF risk using RHR trajectories provided stronger associations than a single RHR measurement.
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Hansen et al. (2026) conducted a cohort in Heart failure (n=47,712). 10 bpm higher resting heart rate vs. Baseline resting heart rate was evaluated on New-onset heart failure (women) (HR 1.15, 95% CI 1.03-1.28). Each 10 bpm higher resting heart rate was associated with a 15% higher risk of new-onset heart failure in women (HR 1.15) and a 9% higher risk in men (HR 1.09).
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