Factors predictive of 5-year survival after transarterial chemoembolization for inoperable hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND: Transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) is widely used for unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), but the long-term survival benefit remains unclear. METHODS: Pretreatment variables were analysed for factors predictive of actual 5-year survival from a prospective database of patients with inoperable HCC treated by TACE between 1989 and 1996. RESULTS: Complete 5-year follow-up (median 91 months) was obtained for 320 patients who underwent a median of 4 (range 1-41) TACEs. Median tumour size was 9 (range 1-28) cm. There were 25 5-year survivors (8 per cent), including eight with tumours larger than 10 cm in diameter and three with portal vein branch involvement. On univariate analysis, female gender (P = 0.037), absence of ascites (P = 0.028), platelet count below 150 x10(9) per litre (P = 0.011), albumin concentration greater than 35 g/l (P = 0.04), alpha-fetoprotein level below 1000 ng/ml (P = 0.007), unilobar tumour (P = 0.027), fewer than three tumours (P = 0.015), absence of venous invasion (P = 0.011), and tumour diameter less than 8 cm (P = 0.021) were significant predictors of 5-year survival. Albumin concentration greater than 35 g/l (P = 0.011), unilobar tumour (P = 0.012) and alpha-fetoprotein level below 1000 ng/ml (P = 0.014) were independent prognostic factors on multivariate analysis. CONCLUSION: Five-year survival is possible with TACE for inoperable HCC, even in some patients with advanced tumours. Unilobar tumours, alpha-fetoprotein level below 1000 ng/ml and albumin concentration greater than 35 g/l were factors predictive of 5-year survival.