Conceptual Stretching in Strategic Foresight: An Evaluative Case Study of Indonesia's National Resilience Planning

ABSTRACT This article examines how traveling concepts from strategic foresight and strategic analysis are translated and operationalised within Indonesia's 2025 national resilience planning, developed by Lemhannas. Focusing on net assessment, scenario approaches, and Black Swan–related ideas, while also considering supporting instruments such as risk matrices and expert judgment where they shape operational claims, the study analyzes how these method families are recontextualised in official policy documents and assesses whether observed divergences are better understood as contextual adaptation or conceptual stretching. The study adopts an evaluative case study design grounded in construct clarity, futures literacy, foresight evaluation scholarship, and fit‐for‐purpose method selection. Using a traceable three‐stage analytical procedure—reference‐point specification, document coding, and evaluative classification—it compares documented operationalisations against reference purposes, boundary conditions, and evidential expectations. Divergences are classified using explicit decision rules that distinguish contextual adaptation from boundary erosion, purpose reversal, inferential overreach, procedural inconsistency, and opacity of decision rules. Empirically, the analysis reveals a consistent pattern in which exploratory and diagnostic method families are translated into an operational regime centered on commensuration, scoring, and classificatory closure. In national resilience planning, this tends to render resilience actionable primarily through periodic categorization and prioritization rather than sustained exploratory learning under uncertainty. While the study does not establish causal impacts on policy outcomes, it develops bounded propositions on implications for anticipatory capacity and resilience sense‐making.