Answers are grounded in this paper and cite their sources.
Consider a sequence of dependent events, where each has uniformly small conditional probability given the past, and the sum of the conditional probabilities is approximately constant at a. Then the number of events which occur is approximately Poisson with parameter a. An explicit bound is given on the variation distance.
No takes yet. Share an insight, caveat, or question.
David A. Freedman (1974) studied this question.
Synapse has enriched 5 related papers. Consider them for comparative context: