Insulating Russia from a Colour Revolution: How the Kremlin Resists Regional Democratic Trends

Abstract An increasingly authoritarian Russia has recently come under pressure from the so-called 'colour revolutions' in the former Soviet Union. The spread of democracy in this region is reminiscent of what democratization scholars call 'diffusion' or 'contagion', a process by which a democratic transition in one country sparks similar transitions in close proximity. Expanding upon the previous literature on democratic diffusion, this article proposes that autocratic leaders have three strategies of 'authoritarian resistance' to regional democratic trends: insulate, bolster and subvert. Each of these is examined in the context of specific Russian policies aimed at halting or containing the process of diffusion at home and abroad: the campaign to undermine the ability of foreign non-governmental organizations within Russia to oppose the Kremlin (insulate) ; Russian support for authoritarianism in Belarus (bolster) ; and, the foreign policy offensive against Ukraine (subvert). The conclusion of this article both explores what the Russian case can tell us about diffusion theory and identifies avenues of future research. Keywords: Russiademocratizationdiffusionauthoritarianismcolour revolutions Notes 1. Andrei Vladimirov, 'An Exportable Revolution', Itogi, 7 December 2004, pp. 10–12, reproduced in What the Papers Say, 9 December 2004. 2. Daniel C. Lynch, 'International "Decentering" and Democratization: The Case of Thailand', International Studies Quarterly, Vol. 48, No. 2 (2004), pp. 339–62, at p. 340. 3. Peter J. Schraeder, 'The State of the Art in International Democracy Promotion: Results of a Joint European–North American Research Network', Democratization, Vol. 10, No. 2 (2003), pp. 21–44. 4. Alex Pravda, 'Introduction', in: Jan Zielonka and Alex Pravda (eds), Democratic Consolidation in Eastern Europe, Vol. 2, International and Transnational Factors, p. 2 (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2001). 5. Daniel Brinks and Michael Coppedge, 'Diffusion is No Illusion: Neighbor Emulation in the Third Wave of Democracy', Comparative Political Studies, Vol. 39, No. 4 (2006), p. 464. 6. Ibid. ; Harvey Starr, 'Democratic Dominoes: Diffusion Approaches to the Spread of Democracy in the International System', Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 35, No. 2 (1991), pp. 356–81; Harvey Starr and Christina Lindborg, 'Democratic Dominoes Revisited: The Hazards of Governmental Transitions, 1974–1996', Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 47, No. 4 (2003), pp. 490–519; John O'Loughlin et al. , 'The Diffusion of Democracy, 1946–1994', Annals of the Association of American Geographers, Vol. 88, No. 4 (1998), pp. 545–74; Anders Ahlin, 'Transnational Democratic Diffusion and Indonesian Democracy Discourses', Third World Quarterly, Vol. 14, No. 3 (1993), pp. 517–44; Renske Doorenspleet, 'The Structural Context of Recent Transitions to Democracy', European Journal of Political Research, Vol. 43, No. 3 (2004), pp. 309–35. 7. One notable exception is Ahlin (note 6). 8. Lynch (note 2), pp. 341–2. 9. Thomas Carothers, 'The Backlash Against Democracy Promotion', Foreign Affairs, Vol. 85 (March/April, 2006), pp. 55-68; Carl Gershman and Michael Allen, 'The Assault on Democracy Assistance', Journal of Democracy, Vol. 17, No. 2 (2006), pp. 36-51. 10. Peter Burnell, 'Promoting Democracy Backwards', FRIDE Working Paper, No. 28 (Madrid: Fundación Para Las Relaciones Internacionales Y El Diálogo Exterior, November 2006). 11. See Lynch's (note 2) analysis of Whitehead and others, pp. 341–4. 12. Suzanne Werner, 'The Effects of Political Similarity on the Onset of Militarized Disputes', Political Research Quarterly, Vol. 53, No. 2 (2000), pp. 347-8. 13. Graeme P. Herd, 'Colourful Revolutions and the CIS: "Manufactured" Versus "Managed" Democracy? ', Problems of Post-Communism, Vol. 52, No. 2 (2005), pp. 3-18. 14. Viktoria Panfilova, Sergei Varshavchik and Viktor Yadukha, 'Russia-Belarus Union Staff are Relying on Lukashenko and Speaking Cautiously of Russia's Support', Nezavisimaya Gazeta, 15 March 2006, pp. 1, 4, reproduced in What the Papers Say, 15 March 2006; Nabi Abdullaev, 'Anti-West Rhetoric Exposes Jitters, Experts Say', Moscow Times, 16 May 2005. 15. Vladimirov (note 1). 16. 'Will There Be an Orange Revolution in Russia? , ' Argumenty i Fakty, 16 March 2005, reproduced in What the Papers Say, 17 March 2005. 17. 'Council on Foreign Relations Inaugural Annual Lecture on Russia and Russian-American Relations', Federal News Service, 13 January 2005. 18. Herd (note 13), p. 9 19. Although Yugoslavia is obviously outside of the former Soviet Union, the overthrow of President Slobodan Milošević was seen as the beginning of a confluence between Western interests, foreign NGOs, and anti-authoritarian revolutions. Carothers (note 9). Wilson makes a convincing case that this was a 'phantom danger', but this perception was widespread nonetheless. See Andrew Wilson, 'Ukraine's Orange Revolution, NGOs and the Role of the West', Cambridge Review of International Affairs, Vol. 19, No. 1 (2006), pp. 21–32. 20. The case of Mikhail Khodorkovsky – an oligarch who ran afoul of the Kremlin seemingly by funding an opposition movement against Putin – is considered to be a case in point, given his later incarceration under dubious circumstances. Even if the Russian government's claims against Khodorkovsky are true, his imprisonment was widely seen as a warning to others like him who might challenge the Putin regime. Andrei Antonov, 'Il Duce's Formula', Novoye Vremya, 4 December 2005, 11, reproduced in What the Papers Say, 12 December 2005. 21. Sharon LaFraniere, 'Anti-Western Sentiment Grows in Russia', Washington Post, 19 January 2003, p. 24. Also see Sergei Stokan and Leonid Gankin, 'Russia Expels US Volunteers', Kommersant, 14 August 2002, p. 5, reproduced in What the Papers Say, 16 August 2002. 22. Natalia Yefimova, 'Russia Turns Away US Labor Activist', Moscow Times, 9 January 2003. 23. RTR Russia TV (Moscow), 26 May 2004, reproduced as 'Full Text of Putin's State of the Nation Address to Russian Parliament', BBC Monitoring International Reports BBCMIR, 26 May 2004. 24. Vedomosti, 21 July 2005, reproduced as 'Newspaper Outlines Fears over Putin Ban on Political Funding from Abroad', BBCMIR, 23 July 2005. 25. 'Putin Supports Law on Non-profit Organizations', TASS, 9 December 2005. 26. Rossiyakaya Gazeta, 8 December 2005, reproduced as 'Draft Law on NGOs to Protect Russia, Says Foreign Intelligence Chief', BBCMIR, 10 December 2005. 27. Suzanna Farizova, 'They're Destroying Our Citizens from Within', Kommersant-Vlast, 28 November 2005, p. 40, reproduced in What the Papers Say, 5 December 2005. 28. Natalia Kostenko, 'FSB Disclosed US Agents', Nezavisimaya Gazeta, 2 December 2005, p. 2, reproduced in Defense and Security, 5 December 2005. 29. Marina Lapenkova, 'Putin "Pretending" to Heed Western Concerns on NGO Bill: Analysts', Agence France Presse, 7 December 2005; Nabi Abdullaev, 'NGOs Say Amendments Won't Help', Moscow Times, 21 December 2005. 30. The International Center for Not-for-Profit Law, 'Analysis of Law # 18-FZ: On Introducing Amendments to Certain Legislative Acts of the Russian Federation', 17 February 2006, available online at: http: //www. icnl. org/knowledge/news/2006/01-19RussiaNGOLawAnalysis. pdf, accessed 14 July 2006. 31. Suzanna Farizova, 'They're Destroying Our Citizens from Within', Kommersant-Vlast, 28 November 2005, p. 40, reproduced in What the Papers Say, 5 December 2005. 32. 'Putin Rejects Criticism on Russia's G8 Role', Agence France Presse, 31 January 2006. 33. C. J. Chivers, 'Kremlin Puts Foreign Private Organizations on Notice', New York Times, 20 October 2006, p. A8. 34. 'Prosecutors: 2 Foreign NGOs Banned', Moscow Times, 18 January 2006; Anatoly Medestky, 'Rights Group Faces Closure', Moscow Times, 30 January 2006. 35. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, who took a strong position of the NGO law and its implementation, credited international pressure for a partial reversal by the Kremlin. 'Media Roundtable with Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and the Travel Pool', Federal News Service, 30 November 2006. Also see Stephen Castle, 'EU Prepares for Showdown with Putin After Civil Liberties Restricted', The Independent, 19 October 2006, p. 26. 36. As identified by Vladimir Vassileyev, the chairman of the Duma Committee on National Security in Kester Kenn Klomegah, 'Govt Accuses NGOs of Fronting Spies, Money-Launderers', IPS-Inter Press Service, 16 January 2006. 37. 'Putin, Hu Jintao to Say Monopoly in Int'l Affairs Inadmissible', TASS, 28 June 2005. 38. Vladimir Radyuhin, 'Shifting Balance in Central Asia', The Hindu, 20 July 2005. 39. Vladimir Isachenkov, 'Russia Lashes Back at US Criticism of its Democracy Record', Associated Press, 20 March 2006. 40. It is perhaps telling that he used the term 'coups' to refer to popular uprisings against autocratic regimes which had rigged elections. 'Interview by Chief of the President's Staff Vladislav Surkov to Der Spiegel', Official Kremlin International News Broadcast, 21 June 2005. 41. 'Kremlin Aide on Threats to Russian Sovereignty', RIA Novosti, 3 March 2006. 42. Given the birth of the Russian identity through Kyivan Rus', the Ukraine is often seen as the closest national cousin to Russia. However, there is little support in Belarus for the sort of cultural and historical separation from the 'Great Russians' that one sees in regard to the formation of Ukrainian national identity. In fact, it has been argued that Belarus is a 'denationalized' nation which looks more to Russia (and the Soviet Union) for its identity than inward at its own culture and history. 43. Thomas Ambrosio, 'The Political Success of Russia-Belarus Relations: Insulating Minsk from a "Color" Revolution', Demokratizatsiya, Vol. 14, No 3 (2006), pp. 1–29. 44. Heinz Timmermann, 'The Union of Belarus and Russia in the European Context', in Ann Lewis (ed. ), The EU 'Russian Foreign Ministry Says Belarusian Elections Clean', RIA Novosti, 20 March 2006; Interfax, 20 March 2006, reproduced as 'Putin Greets Belarusian President-Elect', in BBCMIR, 20 March 2006. 57. Kaare Dahl Martinsen, 'The Russian Takeover of Belarus', Comparative Strategy, Vol. 21, No. 5 (October-December 2002), pp. 401–16; Ruth Deyermond, 'The State of the Union: Military Success, Economic and Political Failure in the Russia-Belarus Union', Europe-Asia Studies, Vol. 56, No. 8 (December 2004), pp. 1191–205. 58. Anders Åslund, 'Is the Belarusian Economic Model Viable', in: Lewis (ed. ), The EU Nikolai Petrov and Andrei Ryabov, 'Russia's Role in the Orange Revolution', in Anders Åslund and Michael McFaul (eds), Revolution in Orange: The Origins of Ukraine's Democratic Breakthrough (Washington, DC: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2006), pp. 145–64; Andrew Wilson, Ukraine's Orange Revolution (New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 2005). 66. See a summary of comments from the Russian press in 'BBC Monitoring Quotes from Russian Press', BBCMIR, 1 December 2004. 67. 'Igor Ivanov: Georgia, Kyrgyzstan and Ukraine Revolutions Have Nothing in Common with Democracy', RIA Novosti, 4 May 2005. 68. Ivan Novikov, 'Duma Concerned about Political Persecutions in Ukraine', TASS, 20 May 2005. 69. Available online at: http: //assembly. coe. int/main. asp? Link/documents/workingdocs/doc05/edoc10574. htm, accessed 17 July 2006. 70. UNIAN News Agency, 2 July 2005, reproduced as 'Ukrainian Opposition, Russian Pro-Presidential Parties Sign Cooperation Accord', in BBCMIR, 2 July 2005. 71. Anfisa Voronina, 'Russia to Help Yanukovich', Vedomosti, 5 July 2005, p. A2, reproduced in Russian Press Digest, 5 July 2005. 72. Anatoly Gordeyev, 'Yanukovich Says CES Can Solve Ukraine's Problems', TASS, 6 February 2006. 73. Freedom House currently rates Ukraine 'free' and the other four 'not free'. 74. Vladimir Isachenkov, 'Former Kremlin Adviser Blasts Russia's Gas Price Hike for Ukraine', Associated Press, 31 December 2005. 75. 'Putin Turns the Taps Back On', Economist. com, 3 January 2006, accessed through Lexis/Nexis. 76. Andrew E. Kramer, 'Russia Restores Most of Gas Cut to Ukraine Line', New York Times, 3 January 2006, p. A1. It should be noted that significantly higher natural gas prices for Belarus were announced in March 2006. However, this increase was believed to be in response to Lukashenka's foot-dragging on the Russia–Belarus union state. Since Russians only pay approximately 30 per 1000 cubic meters, if Belarus and Russia were to reintegrate, Belarusians would presumably enjoy the heavily subsidized rate paid by Russians. 77. Alex Nicholson, 'Putin Slams Western "Threats" to Russia's Global Energy Ambitions', Associated Press, 27 April 2006. 78. 'Revising Black Sea Fleet Agreement Is Unacceptable', RIA Novosti, 27 December 2005. 79. Margaret G. Hermann and Charles W. Kegley, Jr, 'Rethinking Democracy and International Peace: Perspectives from Political Psychology', International Studies Quarterly, Vol. 39, No. 4 (1995), pp. 516–8; Suzanne Werner and Douglas Limke, 'Opposites Do Not Attract: The Impact of Domestic Institutions, Power, and Prior Commitments on Alignment Choices', International Studies Quarterly, Vol. 41, No. 3 (1997) pp. 529–46 (532) ; Werner (note 12), pp. 347–8. 80. Geoffrey Pridham, 'Uneasy Democratizations – Pariah Regimes, Political Conditionality and Reborn Transitions in Central and Eastern Europe', Democratization, Vol. 8, No. 4 (2001), pp. 65–94. 81. Natalia Melikova, 'A Few Words on Freedom of Speech and Khodorkovsky', Nezavisimaya Gazeta, 13 July 2006, p. 3, reproduced in What the Papers Say, 13 July 2006. Additional informationNotes on contributorsThomas Ambrosio Thomas Ambrosio is an Associate Professor in the Department of Criminal Justice and Political Science, North Dakota State University, USA.