Letting sleeping bears lie: Ukraine’s cautious approach to uncertainty before the war

International relations theory has long suggested that uncertainty during militarized crises pushes states to adopt escalatory behavior.However, the leadup to the Russo-Ukrainian War challenges this view, with Kyiv downplaying the risk of conflict and adopting a cautious foreign policy.I argue that Ukrainian behavior in the leadup to the war demonstrates the need to disaggregate between types of uncertainty.While uncertainty over an adversary's intentions and capabilities can push a state to adopt escalatory behavior, uncertainty regarding a potential adversary's military strategy and regarding the level of support it can expect from third parties incentivizes a state to assume a more cautious posture.The piece concludes with a reflection on disciplinary blind spots regarding the impact of uncertainty on state decision-making and offers suggestions for overcoming them.