Excess winter morbidity among older people at risk of cold homes: a population-based study in a London borough

BACKGROUND: Fuel poverty frequently affects older low-income households, in homes that are difficult to heat. Excess winter deaths occurring in Britain are widely attributed to effects of cold. This pilot study examined the demonstrability of a relationship between older people's health and fuel poverty risk, using morbidity data. METHODS: An observational, population-based study was made of 25,000 residents aged >or=65 years in the London Borough of Newham (LBN). Using Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) data over 1993-1997, anonymized at enumeration district (ED) level, we calculated excess winter morbidity, based on emergency hospital episodes for all respiratory diagnosis codes. EDs were variously aggregated after ranking against a proposed Fuel Poverty Risk Index (FPR), including factors of energy inefficient housing, low income, householder age and under occupation. RESULTS: FPR is a predictor of excess winter morbidity. In particular, FPR was observed showing a significant relationship with high winter morbidity counts for 2 of 4 years studied. Using FPR as a two-level factor (high and non-high), the model provides odds ratios: for 1993, winter/summer morbidity ratio for high FPR is 1.7 higher than the corresponding ratio for non-high FPR [95% confidence interval (CI)=1.1-2.7], and for 1996, the odds ratio is 1.6 (95% CI=0.9-2.8). In a regression with grouped EDs, having allowed for FPR, no other variables in our set contribute to the difference between winter and summer morbidity counts. CONCLUSIONS: Results may indicate supporting evidence of a relationship between energy inefficient housing and winter respiratory disease among older people, with public health implications for increasing health-driven energy efficiency housing interventions.