Recognizing institutional capacity-building through triple access scenarios for local transport futures: A Swedish experience

Global warming and the transport sector’s contribution to greenhouse gas emissions have made sustainable mobility a central challenge in urban planning. Recent initiatives extend traditional mobility planning by emphasizing accessibility through physical mobility, spatial proximity, and digital connectivity, while also acknowledging the growing influence of uncertainty in planning processes. This paper examines how scenario-based approaches applied within a quasi-experimental case study approach can support the integration of digitalization and uncertainty management within transport planning practices. The study draws on empirical material from a four-year European project exploring the potential of a Triple Access Planning approach in the Swedish municipality of Norrköping, a mid-sized town in central Sweden. It includes roundtable discussions with experts and researchers, interviews and a staged planning process with planning practitioners. Findings reveal that while planning practitioners recognize the importance of integrating digital accessibility and uncertainty, challenges persist due to fragmented organizational structures, a lack of shared definitions, and limited mobilisation capacity—reflecting a generally low level of institutional capacity. The Collaborative Exploratory Scenario Approach (CESA) proved valuable in addressing these issues by facilitating shared understanding, building networks, and fostering mobilisation capacity within the planning organization. The paper concludes that joint scenario planning applied within a quasi-experimental case study approach can strengthen institutional capacity, enhance preparedness for uncertainty, and enable more adaptive and inclusive approaches to urban mobility. In this sense, CESA functioned not only as a planning tool but also as a process of learning and dialogue, contributing to analytical debate and strengthening the capacity to make robust decisions in a changing world.