Post-Pandemic Tourism Recovery in Kazakhstan: Travel Expenditure, Long-Run Associations, and Regional Disparities

The COVID-19 pandemic caused an unprecedented disruption to global tourism, exposing the structural vulnerability of tourism-dependent economies and leading to a sharp decline in international mobility. This study examines post-pandemic tourism recovery in Kazakhstan, focusing on the association between travel expenditure and tourism demand, and on regional disparities in recovery patterns. The empirical strategy combines time-series econometric modelling, infrastructure index construction, and regional cluster analysis. Using annual data for 2000–2023, a parsimonious autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model is applied to estimate both short-run dynamics and long-run relationships. The results show a positive and statistically significant association between tourism demand and travel expenditure, supporting the interpretation of expenditure-related recovery dynamics. They also indicate persistence in demand and a significant negative association with the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) shock. The error correction mechanism indicates rapid adjustment toward long-run equilibrium. Infrastructure and regional analyses highlight substantial post-pandemic capacity expansion alongside pronounced spatial disparities, with activity concentrated in major urban centres. The findings suggest that recovery is closely associated with demand-side dynamics and accompanied by persistent structural and regional constraints, highlighting the need for coordinated policies that combine demand stimulation, infrastructure development, and balanced regional growth.