Do Terrorism Risk and Relative CO2 Pressure Shape the Persistence of Tourism Demand? Evidence from Thailand

Personal safety and environmental quality are widely regarded as determinants of destination choice, but it is unclear whether either risk changes how tourism demand persists over time. This study tests this question for Thailand using an annual panel of 42 origin markets from 2007 to 2021. A dynamic demand model is estimated by two-step system generalized method of moments, with origin-relative terrorism and CO2-pressure ratios interacted with lagged demand. Demand is highly persistent and fell sharply in 2020 and 2021. The terrorism ratio shows no robust moderation. A CO2-pressure ratio appears to strengthen persistence in the full sample, but this effect is absent before 2020, shrinks by up to two-thirds when extreme 2021 values are floored, loses significance when persistence is allowed to vary with origin income (in a specification with weaker diagnostics), and is not replicated with a PM2.5-based ratio. In 2021, differences in arrivals growth across origins are associated mainly with income. The study finds no robust evidence that national-level terrorism or CO2 indicators moderate demand persistence, and it suggests that apparent moderation in pandemic-era data may reflect income heterogeneity. Findings are limited by coarse national indicators, which do not measure perceived risk, and by a pandemic-heavy sample.