Preparing for the Worst: The Russian Empire and Expectations of the Scandinavian Union (1855–1864)

Advocates of pan-Scandinavianism in the mid nineteenth century hoped to establish a union between Denmark and Sweden-Norway, strong enough to counter potential external aggression. By 1864, as the Second Schleswig War unfolded, the possibility of a Scandinavian union became a conceivable outcome of the conflict. The Russian Emperor Alexander II and his foreign minister Aleksandr Gorchakov chose not to intervene. They even recognized the possibility of a Scandinavian union emerging. This study argues that this tolerant stance was influenced by expectations of the union as a federal, weak and market-related nuisance that posed no real threat to the Russian Empire.