Machine learning for the development of diagnostic models of decompensated heart failure or exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.

Heart failure (HF) and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) are two chronic diseases with the greatest adverse impact on the general population, and early detection of their decompensation is an important objective. However, very few diagnostic models have achieved adequate diagnostic performance. The aim of this trial was to develop diagnostic models of decompensated heart failure or COPD exacerbation with machine learning techniques based on physiological parameters. A total of 135 patients hospitalized for decompensated heart failure and/or COPD exacerbation were recruited. Each patient underwent three evaluations: one in the decompensated phase (during hospital admission) and two more consecutively in the compensated phase (at home, 30 days after discharge). In each evaluation, heart rate (HR) and oxygen saturation (Ox) were recorded continuously (through a pulse oximeter) during a period of walking for 6 minutes, followed by a recovery period of 4 minutes. To develop the diagnostic models, predictive characteristics related to HR and Ox were initially selected through classification algorithms. Potential predictors included age, sex and baseline disease (heart failure or COPD). Next, diagnostic classification models (compensated vs. decompensated phase) were developed through different machine learning techniques. The diagnostic performance of the developed models was evaluated according to sensitivity (S), specificity (E) and the accuracy (A). Data from 22 patients with decompensated heart failure, 25 with COPD exacerbation and 13 with both decompensated pathologies were included in the analyses. Of the 99 characteristics of HR and Ox initially evaluated, 19 were selected. Age, sex and baseline disease did not provide greater discriminative power to the models. The techniques with S and E values above 80% were logistic regression (S: 80.83%; E: 86.25%; A: 83.61%) and the support vector machine (S: 81.67%; E: 85%; A: 82.78%). The diagnostic models developed achieved good diagnostic performance for decompensated HF or COPD exacerbation. To our knowledge, this study is the first to report diagnostic models of decompensation potentially applicable to both COPD and HF patients. However, these results are preliminary and it warrants further investigation to be confirmed.