Tourism: A Social and Economic Stabiliser? Three Scenarios for the Future of Tourism and Their Implications for Tourism Policy

Purpose. The miracle regarding the exceptional growth of tourism since the end of World War 2 has become a mirage with the COVID-19. However, in 2022, tourism is strongly coming back. Do we have to believe in its eternal resilience, do we not already see its limits? Tourism will not be able to develop as it is in a world threatened by climate change, the loss of biodiversity and the multiplication of inequalities.Method. The author, interviewing more than 100 experts with the Likert scale (list of questions are included in the annex at the end of the paper: the respondents/experts answered as follows: total agreement, agreement, without opinion, disagreement, total disagreement) in the world, hypothesizes that tourism can only last if it is responsible and supportive, and if it is part of progressive and territorial social - environmental policies within the globalisation in the Society World.Findings. Three scenarios describe that the situation. The first scenario, based on past trends, leads to disorder, the second scenario, too focused on simple sustainable development in an ultraliberal economy with more inequalities (gentrification) and globalisation of the economy and finance. The third scenario Towards smart tourism and a circular economy seems to be the least risky to major crises, and that it would reconcile policies for the reduction of inequality and the fight against climate change.Research conclusions and limitations. COVID-19 has accelerated the changes in the vision of tourism; it seems that the climate emergency will have even greater consequences from 2025.Originality. Our research started just before the COVID-19 (early 2020) pandemic and was conclude after the massive vaccination (summer 2022).Type of paper. Theoretical paper/prospective essay.