A Geometrical Approach to Conflict Probability Estimation

A method of estimating conflict probability is described. Initially the method is presented considering only along-track errors but subsequently cross-track errors are included. Graphs of conflict probability illustrate limits on the levels of performance that may be attained in medium-term conflict detection and resolution (in the absence of measures to reduce along-track errors). It is shown that, under certain assumptions, the minimum displacement of one aircraft from the other has a normal distribution, and that the minimum distance between them has a folded normal distribution.