Key result
Each 1°C rise in 10-day average temperature is linked to ~1% higher HFMD risk.
Why the study?
Associations between individual-level exposure to ambient meteorological factors and the risk of hand, foot, and mouth disease remain poorly understood.
Does short-term exposure to ambient meteorological factors increase the risk of HFMD onset in individuals in Jiangsu, China?
Observational (n=1,247,970)
Does short-term exposure to ambient meteorological factors increase the risk of HFMD onset in individuals in Jiangsu, China?
Effect estimate: OR 1.0124 (95% CI 1.0013-1.0134)
Short-term exposure to higher temperature, humidity, wind speed, and precipitation is associated with an elevated risk of hand, foot, and mouth disease, whereas radiation and surface pressure are associated with a reduced risk.
Supports hypothesis that temperature influences HFMD; leaves open causality and any surveillance role.
Background Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) represent a significant public health concern in the Asia-Pacific region, imposing a substantial burden that warrants urgent attention. However, the associations between individual-level exposure to ambient meteorological factors and the HFMD risk remain poorly understood. Methods Using a time-stratified case-crossover design, we examine the individual-level association between six meteorological factors (temperature, humidity, wind speed, radiation, surface pressure, and precipitation) and HFMD risk. Conditional logistic regression is employed to investigate the relationship between short-term exposure to meteorological factors and HFMD risk, considering lagged effects and adjusting for public holidays and time-varying grid-level HFMD susceptibility. Exposure-response curves are developed using natural cubic splines to model the non-linear associations, and then extreme meteorological exposure under different thresholds is considered. Results A total of 1,247,970 eligible cases are identified in the study. Each 1-unit increase in exposure to temperature, humidity, wind speed, and precipitation over a 10-day moving average (lag010) is associated with an elevated risk of HFMD, with odds ratios (ORs) of 1.0124 (95% CI: 1.0013, 1.0134), 1.0063 (95% CI: 1.0059, 1.0068), 1.0069 (95% CI: 1.0022, 1.0115), and 1.0081 (95% CI: 1.0069, 1.0092), respectively. In contrast, radiation and surface pressure exhibited a negative association with HFMD, with ORs of 0.9860 (95% CI: 0.9848, 0.9871) and 0.8780 (95% CI: 0.8660, 0.8900) at lag010. As the exposure thresholds for temperature, humidity, wind speed, and precipitation increase, the negative association between the excess magnitude and HFMD risk is strengthened, whereas the associations for radiation and surface pressure are reversed. Conclusion Our findings indicate that short-term exposure to most meteorological factors, except radiation and surface pressure, is associated with an elevated risk of HFMD, providing valuable insights for developing targeted preventive strategies and public health policies.
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Tang et al. (2025) conducted an observational in Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) (n=1,247,970). Short-term exposure to ambient meteorological factors (temperature) vs. Self-matched control days was evaluated on Risk of HFMD per 1°C increase in temperature (lag010) (OR 1.0124, 95% CI 1.0013-1.0134). Each 1-unit increase in exposure to temperature over a 10-day moving average was associated with an elevated risk of hand, foot, and mouth disease (OR 1.0124).
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