How to Predict the Immune Status of Poliovirus Vaccinees? A Comparison of Virus Neutralization at a Very Low Serum Dilution versus ELISA in a Cohort of Infants

A cohort of children from Gaza was observed from birth to the age of one year. Blood specimens were collected at birth, before and after poliovirus vaccination and at one year of age. Poliovirus immunity before and after vaccination was assessed by ELISA and virus neutralization (NT). Positive predictive values for ELISA were between 81.5% and 90.8%. However, ELISA revealed a high frequency of false negatives, and unacceptably low negative predictive values between 28.6% and 55.4%. The history of poliovirus immunity in the cohort was further investigated by NT. A high level of seropositivity to poliovirus type 1 (PV-1) was found. In cord blood, 83.3% had a NT titre greater than or equal to 4 and 99.0% had a titre greater than or equal to 2. Similarly, by one year of age, 85.7% had a titre greater than or equal to 4 and 90.5% had a titre greater than or equal to 2. Seropositivity to PV-2 and PV-3 were slightly lower, ie 80.8% of children had a PV-2 titre greater than or equal to 4 and 75.4% had a PV-3 titre greater than or equal to 4. As for other developing areas, poliomyelitis eradication in Gaza will come about when universal vaccination fills all 'immunity gaps' and improved sanitation and housing reduces the endemicity of wild polioviruses.