Between Assertiveness and Insecurity: Russian Elite Attitudes and the Russia-Georgia Crisis

A political scientist discusses the content and sources of Russian elite perspectives on international affairs. The “color revolutions, ” the perceived specter of Islamic radicalism, contestation over Russian identity, and evolving perceptions of Russia’s international leverage are examined for their impact on elite attitudes. Discussion of the crisis in relations between Russia and Georgia illustrates the article’s theme about the relationship between insecurity and assertiveness. urrent Russian elite attitudes exhibit a striking dualism: confidence, bordering on arrogance, about Russia’s growing influence on the international stage as a global energy superpower combined with anxiety and indeed insecurity about Russia’s political future. These seemingly contradictory attitudes are manifested in Russia’s increasing assertiveness in the international arena, on the one hand, and in a relentless and almost obsessive effort to control the domestic political environment and preempt any potential sources of opposition, on the other. While insecurity is hardly a novel feature of Russian politics, its sources have changed in recent years, and the assertiveness is altogether new. This article will explore the major sources of both assertiveness and insecurity, their expression in the new ideological construct “sovereign democracy, ” and how they have come together in the recent crisis in Russian-Georgian relations. The central and all-consuming issue engaging Russia’s political elite is the uncertainty surrounding the year 2008, when Vladimir Putin’s