Indirect economic effects of new infrastructure: a comparison of Dutch high speed rail variants

New transport infrastructure has a myriad of direct and indirect effects. The indirect effects on population and economic activity are most difficult to estimate. This paper introduces three different models to estimate the impacts of new infrastructure on labour supply and demand, and carefully explains how the interaction between the models and their outcomes should be handled. The methodology is applied to a possible magnetic levitation rail system from Schiphol across the Afsluitdijk to Groningen. Next, this benchmark is used to derive a qualitative assessment for alternative trajectories and slower type of new rail infrastructure, all across the Afsluitdijk. The paper concludes with a summary of the remarkable differences in outcomes with the official Maglev proposal that runs through the polders of the former Zuiderzee.