Estimating the Potential Impact of the 2024 UK Salt Reduction Targets on Cardiovascular Health Outcomes and Health Care Costs in Adults: A Modeling Study

BACKGROUND: Excessive sodium intake is responsible for 3 million deaths a year globally. The UK is one of 64 countries to have a salt reduction program to help reduce the population's sodium intake. It is a voluntary scheme with 108 category-specific salt content targets for the grocery and out-of-home sectors. This study aimed to estimate the potential impact of the 2024 targets on cardiovascular outcomes and health care costs for UK adults. METHODS: Long-term health modeling was based on the adult population in England. Changes in salt intake (g/d), whether the targets were met, were estimated using consumption data from the National Diet and Nutrition Survey 2018/19. Impact on ischemic heart disease and stroke, quality-adjusted life years, and health care costs were estimated using PRIMEtime, a proportional multistate life table model. RESULTS: If the salt reduction targets set for 2024 had been met, then salt intake would have reduced from 6.06 g/d (95% CI, 5.18-6.31) to 4.94 g/d (4.73-5.15), a reduction of 1.12 g/d (1.05-1.20). This would lead to 103 000 (UI, 41 000-161 000) fewer cases of ischemic heart disease and 25 000 (10 000-39 000) fewer cases of stroke over 20 years. A modeled 243 000 (94 000-383 000) quality-adjusted life years would be saved with a net saving of £1.00 billion (£0.35-1.73 billion) to the National Health Service over the remaining lifetime of the adult population. CONCLUSIONS: Reformulation of products to meet the targets could result in substantial reductions in cardiovascular disease without changes in dietary behaviors. Policymakers should consider options to strengthen salt reduction policies, including effective systems for monitoring and enforcement.