Factionalism in the South: A Test of Theory and a Revisitation of V. O. Key

The nature of electoral divisiveness is often explained by one of two competing theories: Riker's size principle or as a function of election rules (e.g., Duverger, Rae). This paper tests these theories in the context of Democratic Party factionalism in the South. The size principle predicts a change from multifactionalism to bifactionalism as Republican opposition rises while the structural explanation posits multifactionalism in double primary states and bifactionalism in single primary states regardless of GOP strength. In 1949, in Southern Politics, Key recognized the competing explanations and felt the former was more viable. However, data from 1932-1977 indicates that with only minor exceptions multifactionalism occurs in double primary states and bifactionalism in single primary states. Moreover, despite dramatic increases in Republican strength throughout the South in the last two decades, there has been no change in patterns of factionalism.