Ivory trade bans and elephant poaching: A temporal analysis using PIKE data and policy interventions

This study evaluates the effectiveness of the ivory trade bans in reducing the illegal killing of elephants by analyzing trends in the Proportion of Illegally Killed Elephants (PIKE) data from 2003 to 2022. Using changepoint analysis, interrupted time series analysis (ITSA), and difference-in-differences methods, we examined shifts in poaching patterns in response to key policy interventions, including the 2008 one-off ivory sale to China and Japan, and the implementation of domestic the ivory trade bans in major markets such as China and the United States after 2015. Results indicate that elephant poaching in Africa increased significantly following the 2008 sale, with PIKE peaking between 2009 and 2014. However, a significant decline in PIKE occurred after 2015, coinciding with the adoption of comprehensive national ivory bans. Comparative analysis shows no corresponding fluctuations in Asian elephant PIKE data, suggesting regional variation in poaching drivers. Additionally, an economic supply-demand model reveals that international trade bans alone are insufficient to curb poaching unless complemented by domestic market suppression. National bans reduce consumer demand and disrupt laundering opportunities, thereby amplifying enforcement effectiveness. The findings suggest that coordinated international agreements, when paired with stringent domestic policies, can significantly reduce elephant poaching. However, persistent illegal activity highlights the need for sustained enforcement and global cooperation. These results offer empirical support for ongoing trade restrictions and underscore the importance of consumer-side interventions in wildlife conservation.