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February 1, 2021Risk AnalysisOpen Access

An Updated Economic Analysis of the Global Polio Eradication Initiative

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Why the study?

Prior health economic analyses of the Global Polio Eradication Initiative assumed eradication by 2012, requiring an update given delays in eradication and increased costs.

Population

Global population

Comparison

Global Polio Eradication Initiative trajectory vs no eradication baseline

Design

Integrated global economic modeling study

Follow-up

Time horizon of 1988-2029

Key result

The Global Polio Eradication Initiative is estimated to yield incremental net benefits of 28 billion US$2019 over the 1988–2029 time horizon, assuming eradication is achieved in 2023.

Authors

KTKimberly M. ThompsonDKDominika A. Kalkowska

Discussion

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Member takes

Overview

Expected net benefits support sustained eradication investments; leaves open effects of further delays on cost-effectiveness.

Structured PICO

P
Population
An economic modeling analysis evaluating the health and financial outcomes of the Global Polio Eradication Initiative across 105 countries representing approximately 3.7 billion people from 1988 to 2029.
I
Intervention
Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) strategies including routine immunization and supplementary immunization activities with OPV and IPV, modeled retrospectively (1988-2018) and prospectively (2019-2029) under two scenarios (RC2 without eradication, RC2* with eradication by 2023).
C
Comparator
No GPEI scenario (continued use of trivalent OPV in routine immunization only, no supplementary immunization activities).
O
Outcome
Incremental net benefits (INB) in 2019 US dollars, incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs), and cases prevented.

Main Result

Effect estimate: 28 billion US$2019

Despite delays and increased costs, the Global Polio Eradication Initiative continues to yield expected incremental net benefits globally, estimated at 28 billion US$2019 if eradication is achieved by 2023.

Limitations

  • Does not consider the COVID-19 pandemic effects on cases and costs.
  • Does not consider external benefits or unquantified costs of the GPEI.
  • Results depend on the number of stochastic iterations and assumptions about potential future policies.
  • Global programmatic cost estimates do not fully capture investments made by some GPEI partners.
  • Does not fully capture investments made by some GPEI partners (e.g., donated time, BMGF staff support)
  • Does not consider external benefits of the GPEI such as vitamin A delivery

Cite This Study

Thompson et al. (2021) studied Poliomyelitis. Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) vs. No GPEI (routine immunization only) was evaluated on Incremental net benefits (INB) (28 billion US$2019). The Global Polio Eradication Initiative is estimated to yield incremental net benefits of 28 billion US$2019 over the 1988–2029 time horizon, assuming eradication is achieved in 2023.

synapsesocial.com/papers/6a1f05c248e4540562b2fb01https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.13665
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