Age at Onset as an Indicator of Familial Risk of Breast Cancer

The familial risk of breast cancer was investigated in a large population-based, case-control study conducted by the Centers for Disease Control. The data set included 4,730 histologically confirmed breast cancer cases aged 20-54 years and 4,688 controls who were frequency matched to cases by geographic region and 5-year categories of age. Family history of breast cancer among first-degree female relatives of cases and controls was utilized. To identify factors associated with familial risk of breast cancer, a Cox proportional hazards model was used, modeling time to onset of breast cancer among mothers and sisters. Case relatives were at greater risk than control relatives. Among relatives of cases, a significant increase in the risk of breast cancer was associated with decreasing age at onset of the case and with having an additional relative affected with breast cancer. The hazard ratio for the mother of a case with breast cancer diagnosed at 50 years of age was 1.7 (95% confidence interval (Cl) 1.4-2.0), compared with 2.7 (95% Cl 2.2-3.2) and 4.3 (95% Cl 3.3-5.6) for the mother of a case whose diagnosis occurred at 40 and 30 years of age, respectively. The hazard ratio for the sister of a case with an unaffected mother and at least one affected sister in addition to the case was 3.6 (95% Cl 2.1-6.1) when the case was diagnosed at age 50, compared with 5.8 (95% Cl 3.4-10.0) and 9.4 (95% Cl 5.3-16.7) when the case was diagnosed at 40 and 30 years of age, respectively. The hazard ratio for the sister of a case with an affected mother and no additional affected sisters was 5.9 (95% Cl 3.9-8.9) when the case was diagnosed at age 50, compared with 9.4 (95% Cl 6.2-14.4) and 15.1 (95% Cl 9.4-24.3) when the case was diagnosed at 40 and 30 years of age, respectively. The hazard ratio for the sister of a case with both an affected mother and at least one affected sister aside from the case was 17.1 (95% Cl 9.4-31.3) when the case was diagnosed at age 50, compared with 27.5 (95% Cl 15.0-50.3) and 44.2 (95% Cl 23.5-83.2) when the case was diagnosed at 40 and 30 years of age, respectively. No effect of case's menopausal status and bilaterality was found, indicating that in addition to a positive family history, age at onset is the strongest indicator of a possible genetic subtype of breast cancer in these data.